Artificial Intelligence (AI) might not be coming for your jobs just yet. According to a recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), it may take decades before AI, particularly in the form of computer vision, becomes financially viable for companies to replace human workers. The research focused on the practicalities of using AI, specifically computer vision, to automate tasks in the United States. The findings indicate that, in the majority of cases, it is more cost-effective for firms to continue employing human workers for certain tasks rather than investing in AI technology.
The study suggests that only 23% of workers’ wages could be efficiently replaced by artificial intelligence. One of the reasons cited is that AI-assisted visual recognition technology, a key component of computer vision, is currently expensive to install and operate. The researchers also predict that, even with a 20% annual decrease in costs, it will still take many years for computer vision tasks to become financially efficient for companies. Neil Thompson, the principal investigator at MIT Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), conveyed optimism about job replacement, stating that automation with AI in computer vision systems may not be economically attractive for years or even decades.
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AI computer vision tasks
The study highlights that only 23% of worker compensation related to AI computer vision tasks would be economically viable for firms to automate due to the significant initial costs associated with implementing AI systems. The MIT researchers pointed out that previous predictions and studies lacked specificity regarding the timeline and extent of automation, as they didn’t directly consider the technical feasibility or economic viability of AI systems. Instead, these studies relied on measures of similarity between tasks and AI capabilities to indicate exposure.
While acknowledging the potential for AI to disrupt the job market both presently and in the future, Neil Thompson from MIT emphasized that even in the short term, some workers may experience job loss or changes in responsibilities due to AI. Looking ahead, Thompson suggested that the cost of developing AI systems might decrease in the future, potentially accelerating their adoption by companies. However, he also noted that it will likely take many years for these costs to reach a level where widespread deployment of AI systems by companies becomes feasible.
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